REPLACEMENT OF MINERAL RESOURCE BASE - THE TARGET CHALLENGE FOR MATURE AND EMERGING REGIONAL GAS MARKETS OF EURASIA

R.O. Samsonov (Gazprom VNIIGAZ), N.A. Gafarov (Gazprom), S.N. Valkovskiy, S.B.
Korotkov, I.V. Istratov (Gazprom VNIIGAZ)

Background. The ongoing processes of globalization in the XXI century should
lead to the creation of a single gas market. At present, three inter-regional markets have
been largely developed : North American, Western European and Asian-Pacific.
Considering the regional nat ural gas markets of Eurasia, the mature markets of
Western and Eastern Europe (including emerging market of South-Eastern Europe), of
Asia-Pacific region (APR) - the emerging markets of Central and South-West Asia
(Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran, Pakistan, India) and of South-East Asia (China, the
Republic of Korea, Japan) can be singled out.

The leading countries - exporters of gas (including Russia) have a great
opportunity to integrate these inter-regional markets. First steps in this direction have
already been taken. According to the vivid expression, the “big gas three” is already
created: Russia, Iran and Qatar are intended to implement the common projects at the
entire gas c hain (exploration, production, distribution, marketing). Resources and
reserves of free gas of the above mentioned countries are respectively 343,7 and 100,1
Bcm (55,5% and 57,7% of the world res erves). At the end of 2008 the remaining 12
countries - exporters of the natural gas with the significant reserves and resources of
this hydrocarbon raw material have united in the Gas Exporting Countries Forum
(GECF).
As is well known, export capacity of natural gas supplies are determined not only
by gas prices and availability of gas trans portation systems, terminals, tanker fleet, but
by the production level, national consumption volume, discovered resources and
undiscovered potential resources. The analysis of the gas resources structure for
Western Europe, the Middle East, South-East Asia was carried out to obtain the
meaningful natural gas capacity evaluation, based on the identified trends of variations
of raw materials base, in leading European countries' gas industry. The dynamics of gas
reserves, the cumulative production and current reserves for the 2009-2030 were
predicted for these countries and regions.
Objectives. The purpose of the studies is to analyze the resource base of
hydrocarbon raw materials (natural gas), possibilities of its renewal and production rates
of the major countries - exporters of gas and, respectively, the demands of countriesimporters
for hydrocarbon raw materials; to identify the progress t rends, volumes and
directions of gas deliveries using the operating and planned transport corridors; to show
the significance of OAO “Gazprom” in ensuring the operation of mature and emerging
Eurasian gas markets.
One of the primary objectives in energy sector of European Union (EU) is safety of
natural gas supplies and their diversification that conditions the need for further
deregulation of market and provision of the appropriate volume of investments.
According to International Energy Agency (IEA) data, during 2001 - 2030 aggregate
investments in the gas industry of 15 EU countries out of 27 shall amount to (in billion
US dollars): 85-95 for consumers gas supply, 50-75 for transportation, 10-15 for
storage, 15-20 for regasificaton of liquefied natural gas (LNG). Philosophic law of the
unity and struggle of opposites, which is expressed here in coexistence of
competitiveness and stable development of the industry, compl icates deregulation of
gas and electric power market. EU examines the third draft legislation package on
deregulation of energy market in this context. European Commission, European Council
and European Parliament shall express their position on this package.
OAO “Gazprom” is the major gas exporter to Europe and supplies 25% of gas to
EU countries and stands for long-term contracts on gas supply that enables
investments in large gas projects. European Commission encourages the possibility of
complete separation of ownership with equal access of all companies to gas
transportation system that allows Russia to diversify export supplies. OAO “Gazprom”
gains ground in the Europe by purchasing gas transportation networks, being directly
involved in consumers gas supply. One can expect the similar strategy of this world
major oil and gas company in other gas supply directions: to the Asian region and, first
of all, to China, Japan and the Republic of Korea.
Approach. Calculation of the production capacity for hydrocarbon raw materials,
natural gas of Russia, West-European countries, Middle East and South-East Asia, was
carried out on the base of well known technology developed in VNIIGAZ considering the
trends in changes of raw materials structure during the period 1995 – 2008. .The
degree of resources exploration and reserves depletion, sustainability ratio of probable
and prospective reserves categories of the leading countries and regions in whole were
calculated to back up the forecasts. The increasing production (from 3 to 7% depending
on the country) was calculated at reserves -to-resources ratio less than 60% whereas
decreasing production was assumed when reserves-to-resources ratio is more than
60%. Current (remaining) reserves were assessed on the base of the ultimate potential
resources, cumulative production and proved reserves (of the undiscovered sources)
for replacement of mineral resource base of gas production and maintenance of exportimport
balance volumes in years 2011, 2021 and 2031.
Results. Gas res ources and reserves. Expert estimate of the world natural gas
resources with the use of materials of W orld Conference on Gas Resources (USA,
Colorado, Wail, 1994) conducted in VNIIGAZ shows the value of 619 Gsm3 (it is
evaluated by different experts and research organizations to be within the interval 450 -
650 Gsm3). Share of Russia in the above mentioned value is 249 (40,2%), of Middle
East - 137 (22,1%), APR (Asia Pacific region) - 51 (8,2%) Gsm3 (the fourth place after
the North-American region) with the corresponding undiscovered (probable and
prospective) world resources estimated at 342 Gsm 3 (173 in Russia, 60 in the Middle
East, 34 in APR). As of December 31, 2008 OAO “Gazprom” has control over 69% of
sources (33,1 Gsm3) of the total discovered reserves in Russia (47,8 Gsm 3 which
makes up 27% of total world resources).
Global gas resources scarcely changed during 2007-2008, they grew by only
0,05% and 1,1% respectively (almost by 2 Gsm 3) and by January 1, 2009 accounted for
177105 Bcm (according to OGJ). The share of natural gas reserves of the leading
West-European countries continues to reduce due to recovery of reserves and the
intensive growth in the Asian countries: Indonesia, Malaysia and Pakistan. During the
last few years the maximum reduction of reserves was in Mexico, Thailand and Papua
New Guinea. For the last decade global gas reserves have grown by 31 Gsm3, average
annual growth accounted for 3% with pace of growth in 1998 -2003 – 3,6% and in 2004 -
2008 – 0,5 %.
The region that experienced t he major reduction of reserves is West Europe. It
affected the majority of West European countries, except Austria, G ermany, Greece
Spain and Netherlands. The Great Britain (reduction by 69 Bcm or 14%) and Norway
(by 90 Bcm and 4% in 2008) were the leaders . The total reduction accounted for 5%.
Proven reserves of natural gas at the current production capacity is sufficient in
Russia for 70 years, all over the world for 60 years and is as follows in regions: North
America – 10, Western Europe -16, Eastern Europe -20, APR - 30, South America – 50,
CIS – 60, Africa – 95 and Middle East – 250 years.
Global gas production has increased by only 0,8% in 2007 after the significant
growth in 2006 (by 138 Bcm or 5%). This was conditioned by gas production decrease
in the Great Britain, Iran and several other countries. Natural gas production in 2007
confirmed the forecasts and accounted for 2858 Bcm (according to OGJ). More than 85
Gsm3 was produced during all the time of commercial development of natural gas
fields.
Natural gas production in Western Europe has reduced by nearly 6%. The
production in Great Britain has decreased by nearly 8% and has been compensated by
only 4%. The production in the Netherlands has reduced by 8% as well (replacement of
reserves equals the production); the production in Norway has considerably grown – by
2%, though its reserves have reduced due to field reassessment and writing off while
revaluation of fields and increased due to new discoveries in the last 2-3 years.
Russia remains the leader in gas production - 656,2 Bcm in 2006, 654,0 Dcm in
2007 and 665 Bcm in 2008 (rise by 2,1% compared with the previous year). Renewal of
gas resources in Russia in the volume exceeding the production is going on since 2005.
As for OAO ”Gazprom”, production amounted to 549 and 550 Bcm in 2007 and 2008
with corresponding product ion growth of 606 (9,4%) and 583 (5,7%) Bcm.
Eastern Europe and CIS occupy the second place in the world according to gas
production - 850 Bcm (Western hemisphere – North and South America- occupy the
first place - 939 Bcm), Asian -Pacific region is on the third place (363 Bcm). Western
Europe and the Near and the Middle East produce a little more than 280 Bcm. Algeria
(94 Bcm) produces more than one half of all gas in Africa (six th place, 146 Bcm).
Natural gas consumption. The natural gas will remain the most called-for, leastcost
and ecologically clean type of fuel till 2050, its consumption is growing by 1,8% per
year. The major part of consumed gas will be related in future to electric power
production, gas chemistry and housing and utilities sector.
It must be noted here that natural gas from many oil and gas basins and fields all
over the world may contain gas rich in methane homologs, hydrogen sulfide, nitrogen,
helium and other valuable components that can by separated out and considered as
independent mineral resources with appropriate development of tec hnology and
production. The government registration of ethane-bearing gases with ethane content of
not less than 3%, as well as containing propane, hydrogen sulfide, carbon dioxide,
sulphur and helium, is ongoing.
Natural gases are divided by methane homologs contents into methane, ethane,
ethane-propane and propane-butane gases. The methane gases contain 90-100% of
methane and up to 3% of heavy hydrocarbons. The ethane gases contain 3-6% of
ethane with 10% of amount of heavy hydrocarbons. Ethane-propane gases contain 10-
30% of homologies, with 6-9% of ethane among them. Propane-butane gases are
characterized by 30% of heavy hydrocarbons (and more than 9% of ethane) in their
contents.
Natural gases are divided by condensate contents into low-condensate (less than
30 g/m3), less -condensate (30-100 g/m3), mid-condensate (100-200 g/m3) and highcondensate
(more than 200 g/m3). By hydrogen sulfide contents gases are divided into
sulphur-free (less than 0,0014%), low-sulphur (0,0014-0,3%), mid- sulphur (0,3-1,0%)
and high-sulphur (more than 1%); by nitrogen contents – low-nitrogen (less than 15%),
nitrogen (15-50%) and high-nitrogen (more than 50%). On the base of modern
geological and geochemical analysis of concentration distribution of heavy
hydrocarbons it was determined t hat the contents of hydrocarbon part (methane +
heavy hydrocarbons) is controlled by the several natural factors.
Therefore in the majority of countries all over the worl d natural gas is considered
to be essential chemical raw material. At present 1855 refineries and natural gas
processing plants are operating all over the world with the total output of 2586,8 million
m3 per year. 1608.5 million m 3 of natural and associated gas were processed at these
plants in 2006, and 405.7 million tons were acquired, including 40.7 million tons of
ethane, 32.4 million tons of propane, 22.6 million tons of butanes, 205.1 million tons of
liquefied gases and condensates. The major refining outputs are centered in USA,
Saudi Arabia, Canada, Mexico, Kuwait, Iran, Australia, Russia, India and Algeria.
Primary natural gas consumption according to the preliminary scenario may grow
from 2,8 Gsm3 in 2007 to 3,6 Gsm3 in 2015 and 4,3-4,7 Gsm3 in 2030 in the world
energy sector. Global gas demand will grow by average 2% per year (less than 2,6% in
1980-2004). However, it is expected that the natural gas share will decrease in the
world energy consumption to 22,6%, while in 2006 it accounted for 23,7%.
According to some forecasts (ExxonMobil), the demand for energy supply will
increase by 60% by year 2030 compared to 2000; GDP (gross domestic product)
growth can grow by average 2,8% per year by 2030. Energy demand till 2030 will
increase by average 1,6% and will approximate to 16500 million tons of oil equivalent
per year, it is 60% more than in 2000. By estimate of International Energy Agency (IEA)
in the nearest 20 years the world energy c onsumption will grow by about 60% with the
growth rate at 1,7% per year. The fastest growth of energy demand will be observed in
the countries non-members of Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD), their share will account for 80% of world growth.
In the nearest 10-15 years and till 2030 the increasing energy demand will be
satisfied by oil, gas and coal. At present up to 80% of the consuming energy is
produced from the fossil fuels and this index will not be considerably modified by 2 030:
the resources of oil, gas and coal are available in good supply in many countries all
over the world.
The outlined significant intensification of exploration onshore and especially
offshore of Russia (in spite of the known challenges of its development), the new
increments of proved reserves will p rovide considerable growth of gas production to
950-980 Bcm in 2030 (including OAO “Gazprom” - to 760 -78 Bcm) due to the
conventional resources only. The most prospective global regions for development of
the conventional energy raw materials are Eastern and Western Siberia, Far East
(Russian Federation) and Russian sector of the Arctic seas and Okhotsk Sea. Thus, the
offshore resources in Russia are evaluated (year 2002) at 73,8 Gsm3 of free gas. They
are situated mainly at the Arctic shelf (Barents Sea - 23.5, Pechora Sea - 2,3, Kara Sea
(30.0) with the gulfs and bays - 31.0, Laptev Sea - 2.2, East Siberian S ea - 3,3, Chukchi
Sea - 2,0, Bering Sea - 0,7) and are equal to 65 Gsm3. Proved gas reserves amount to
approximately 6 Gsm3 and are discovered in Barents (3,2) and Kara (1.5) Seas (4.7
Gsm3); Okhotsk (0,9) and Caspian (0.3) Seas (1.2 Gsm3).
The development of new and advancement of the existing technologies after
2030 will expand the hydrocarbon raw materi als base, increase resources and reserves
due to unconventional hydrocarbon sources (natural gas of the dense reservoirs, coal
bed methane etc.). After 2025-2030 keeping of the high level and step-by-step increase
of gas production will continue at the exp ense of the unconventional resources. Share
of these resources in total production will steadily grow and allow Russia to achieve
self-sufficiency in natural gas for many years. Also, except for gas supply of the own
country, the active export policy can be conducted.
Transportation c orridors. It is possible to successfully handle the problem of
mineral resource base replacement for gas production in the mature and emerging
markets of Eurasia. The solution is in realization of the high gas potential of the
countries members of the Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) including the mineral
resources of Russian Federation. At present the share of RF in the world gas resources
and reserves is 40,2% and 27%. Compared to the main allies -rivals (Iran and Qatar)
Russia is capable for independent creation of North-Eurasian transportation corridor
that will unite two large gas consumption regions, European and East Asian, in the
context of gas market integration. Evidently, OAO “Gazprom” in the nearest future will
be responsible for development of the inter-continental transportation corridors and will
manage the Russian strategic challenges in creation and development of the world gas
market in Eurasian geo-space.
Gas consumption is already increasing in Western and Eastern Europe, but the
major growth is in China, India and some other countries of the Asian region. Annual
world gas production will als o increase by nearly 1,9 Gsm3 or 2/3 by the year 2030. The
Middle East, Central and North Africa (except Russia) are expected to contribute to this
growth. Europe is the only region that will see the reduction of gas production at the
completion stage of field development in 2010-2020. Interregional gas trade between
Asia and Europe will continue to develop due to the geographic inconsistency between
demand and distribution of resources and reserves, which provide the corresponding
production level. Main gas consumption regions become increasingly import -dependent.
Undoubtedly Europe and Asia-Pacific region will see the major import growth in the
world. The import of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will boost as well on the background of
global interregional trade.
The Middle East and Africa provide nearly 1/3 of the global interregional natural
gas export. Europe and the USA receive the main part of export from these regions.
Russia is the major regional gas supplier in Europe. In future it is planned to increase
gas supplies from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, probably
through the Russian territory, to Europe by constructing a new Pre-Caspian gas pipeline
and reconstructing Central Asia – Centre and Bukhara – Ural trunk gas pipelines and
also by the participation of Russian companies in gas production projects of Central
Asia. However, Russia itself is capable of rapidly boosting the production and
maintaining and even increasing the current export volumes to Europe. Moreover,
Russia can start exporting gas to Asia. According to expert evaluations, by 2020 China
alone will need 70 Bcm of Russian natural gas .
Four projects of pipeline laying to China were considered. The first one (Irkutsk –
Daqing) is designed for transmission of 30 Bcm gas per year. The second one (Urengoy
– Lunnan), called also “Altay”, is of 2800 km length and throughput capacity of 30 Bcm
per year. The third project, “Sakha”, is the longest one, with maximum throughput
capacity of 38 Bcm per year. The last pipeline, Sakhalin – China, 12,5 Bcm per year,
should be completed by 2010. These trunk pipelines are designed to supply 80 Bcm of
gas per year to China.
Various authoritative sources state that the gas demand in Asia-Pacific region
will grow by 2010 up to average 500-520 Bcm per year, by 2020 – up to 730-750 Bcm,
the supplies from regions outside Asian-Pacific region should increase correspondingly
up to 170-190 and 410-420 Bcm.
The identified trends in regional natural gas production and consumption reflect
relative resource volumes and their locations regarding main markets. Production
volumes will most considerably grow in the Near East, Russia and Africa. These
countries will ensure performance of the regional markets in Eurasia.
The forecasted growth of primary natural gas consumption in all industrial
branches of Eurasia in the following 20 years will be fully provided for by the existing
gas production mineral resource base, though the share of gas in the primary energy
will not increase considerably (23% in 2030). In 2020 -2030 European OECD will remain
the largest mature market (except North American) and South -East-Asian market will
remain the largest emerging one.
As mentioned above, the considerable decrease in regional oil and gas
production due to depletion of base hydrocarbons reserves in Western Europe is
expected by 2030. Satisfaction of gas demand will in particular be provided by pipeline
transportation and LNG import from Russia, Middle East, Caspian region (Azerbaijan,
Turkmenistan), Northern (Algeria, Egypt) and Western (Nigeria) Africa. LNG supplies
amounted to 155 Bcm per year in 2000 or 5% of the world gas market. The rate of
growth of LNG supplies will reach 725 Bcm per year (almost 4 times as high) by 2030, it
will form and consolidate the integral inter-regional natural gas market.
According to European news agencies the demand in gas in the EU countries,
which amounted to 500 Bcm in 2005, will increase to 700 Bcm by 2015 and to 1500
Bcm by 2020 according to estimates of some experts.
Globalization of fuel and energy complex of regions and countries manifests by
design and boosted building of the new transportation and energy inter-regional and
trans-continental corridors, such as ESPO pipeline, “Nabucco”, TAP (Trans-Afghanistan
Pipeline), Persian Gulf – India, “South Stream”, etc. The main diversification trends of
gas supply to Western and South-Estern Europe are listed below.
“The First Corridor”: natural gas supply from the North S ea fields to Western
Europe. The identified gas resources are decreasing due to development, production
level is decreasing (little more than 280 Bcm was produced in 2007), incremental
growth does not compensate the productive rate. The production decline started in UK
and Netherlands (both by 8% in 2007). Sharp decline of gas capacity (peak gas rate is
130 Bcm) is expected in Norway since 2010 (the production has grown by 2% in 2007).
“The Second Corridor”: Russian gas supplies to Western Europe via Ukraine
(annual volume 150-170 Bcm in 2005-2007). According to estimates of RF Ministry of
Industry and Energy the possible gas export volume can reach 355 Bcm by 2030.
“The Third Corridor”: Russian gas main pipeline “Blue Stream” to Turkey; gas
supplies reached 23 Bcm (18 in 2005, 20 in 2006). Own gas consumption in Turkey
during 2007 has reached about 39 Bcm (9 of them is Iran-Turkmenian, 6,6 -
Azerbaijanian, 23 – Russian, 0,241 - domestic gas supplies). According to estimates of
experts the consumption will exceed 50 Bcm by 2010. Agreement has been reached in
respect of building of the second line of gas pipeline.
“The Fourth Corridor”: the projected Nabucco gas main (from Central Asia to t he
Europe). Gas and steel prices rise increases the cost of scheduled Nabukko
construction. Reinhard Mitschek, Chief Executive Officer of Nabucco Gaspipeline
International, has mentioned that the project needs 2 million tons of steel and 30 gas
compressor stations (CS) per 3300 km.
Nabucco gas pipeline (project is named in honor of the legendary Babylonian
king Nebuchadnezzar) is scheduled to put into operation by 2013. Estimated capacity is
26-32 Bcm per year. The initial project cost was estimated as 5 billion euro. Experts
noted that it was feasible to complete the construction by 2005. According to the
scheme with the expected transition rate of 31 Bcm per year the estimated cost will
reach 8 billion euro. The consortium was created to conduct the projec t, the members
are: «OMV Gas GmbH» (Austria), «Botas» (Turkey), «Bulgargaz» (Bulgaria),
«S.N.T.G.Transgaz S.A.» (Romania), «NOL Natural Gas Transmission Company Ltd.»
(Hungary), «RWE Gas Midtream» (Germany). Caspian gas (from Azerbaijan and
Middle Asia) wi ll come to the Europe - Turkey, Greece, Bulgaria, Hungary, Romania,
Austria. As Deputy Minster of Oil said, Iran is ready to take part in “Nabucco project:
Caspian gas for European markets”.
“The Fifth Corridor”: North-European gas pipeline with throughput capacity of 50-
70 Bcm per year.
“The Sixth Corridor”: the scheduled 900 km long gas pipeline “South Stream” for
gas supplies from Russia to South-East Europe – 63 Bcm (start with 31).
“The Seventh and Eights Corridors”: the supplies of gas from Algeria to Spain (8
Bcm), France and Italy; aggregate s upply will reach 85 Bcm by 2010.
“The Ninth Corridor": the scheduled 1800 km long gas main with 56 inches
diameter and throughput capacity to 40 Bcm per year. The cost is USD 5 billion. Gas
will come from South Pars field (Assaluyeh region) to Turkey border (Bazargan city) and
then to the South-East Europe. The agreement on South Pars development was signed
by «NIOC» (National Iranian Oil Company) and European companies: English-Holland
«Royal Dutch Shell», French «Total» and Spanish «Repsol YPF». OAO “Gazprom”
(Russia) is also the member of the project.
In 2007, Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan have signed the
Declaration on construction of the Caspian gas pipeline, which will export gas from
Central Asia to the Europe via Russia with gas amount up to 100 Bcm (”The Tenth
Corridor”). Export commitments of Turkmenistan were dependent on the scheduled
significant gas capacity – more than 160 Bcm per year. However, Russia, Azerbaijan
and Uzbekistan have already agreed oh the boundaries of their sectors in Caspian Sea,
but Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan are still in process.
Estimations show that the old and new gas mains (“corridors”), including the
operating and scheduling, shall supply Europe with natural gas in amount of 700-800
Bcm by the year 2015 and that will be completely adequate for the demand by the time.
Conclusion. The analysis of alteration of structure of reserves, production levels,
consumption and export -import volumes of hydrocarbon raw materials – natural gas
from the leading countries of Western Europe, Middle East, South-East Asia during
1995-2008 was carried out. Taking into account the current state of raw materials base,
the analysis made it possible to calculate gas recovery alternatives in the countries and
regions till 2030 and show the possibilities of the mature and emerging regional gas
markets of Eurasia.
1. Natural gas reserves in Western Europe are steadily declining from 5422 Bcm
in 1995 to 4448 Bcm in 2009 (2,5% of the world res erves) – by 22%. The extent of
exploration of the initial total in-place resources, being estimated as 26 Gsm 3, have
approached 60% in the region, cumulative production and proved reserves accounted
for 15 Gsm3, undiscovered resources – 11 Gsm 3. The ex tent of exploration of the initial
total in-place resources in UK and Netherlands have exceeded 70% and is only 41% in
Norway. According to the base version of the forecast of 3% annual growth in Western
Europe, the predicted consumption volume will amount to: 612 Bcm in 2010, 814 in
2020, 935 in 2025, 1076 in 2030. The demand will be met by import in 2010, 2020,
2025 and 2030, while the production will be declining (233, 113, 80, 55 Bcm), and,
except for the incremental growth, is expected to be 379, 701, 955, 1021 Bcm.
Therefore, the reliance of the region on imported gas will grow from 40% to 70% by
2030.
Apart from the increasing volume of natural gas supply by pipelines, the LNG
supplies will be growing very fast. According to the published forecast they will amount
to 220 Bcm in 2010, 305 in 2020, 365 in 2030. The prospects of import depend on
development of the LNG receiving terminals, first of all in Spain, Italy and France. The
volume of interregional and intercontinental market will increase with reduction of the
role of regional gas trade. Taking into account identified trends in the global gas market,
value of the external supply of gas to Western Europe and LNG in particular, will mostly
increase during the next 20 years.
2. Gas industry in Middl e East is progressing at different rates and in different
domains depending on the specific features of economy, politics and other factors.
Countries in these regions differ considerably by natural gas production capacity and
consumption volume.
Analysis of the proved reserves in the Middle East region identified the trend to
their growth from 45145 Bcm in year 1995 up to 73388 Bcm at the beginning of 2009.
(41,4% of the world reserves) – rise by 63%. Resources and production capacity growth
rate is more than 5%. The extent of exploration of the initial total in -place gas resources
of the region is 56,8% (137 Gsm 3), cumulative production and proved reserves – 77, 8
Gsm3, undiscovered resources – 59,2 Gsm3 . The extent of exploration is rather
considerable in Iran (72%) and Kuwait (93%); Iraq – 57%, Qatar – 46%.
So, the gas industry in the leading countries of Western Europe (United
Kingdom, Germany, Denmark, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, France) and Middle East
(Iraq, Iran, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Abu Dhabi, Oman, Saudi Arabia) is developing rapidly,
though the raw materials base of the regions differs by the development stage.
In midterm the close integration of West-European and Mid-Eastern gas
industries can be expected, where the prior role of Russia and OAO “Gazprom” is
evident in the increasing winning economic relationships. Russia and OAO “Gazprom”
possess the world’s largest resources, reserves and gas production level and powerful
scientific engineering potential.
3. According to the different sources the gas reserves of South-Eastern Asia vary
from 12,2 to 17,0 Gsm3 (about 7% of the world reserves). Initial total in-place gas
resources in the region are explored at 36% (51,3 Gsm 3), cumulative production and
proved reserves account for 17,6 Gsm 3, undiscovered resources – 32,7 Gsm 3. The
main proved reserves of natural gas are concentrated in the following countries (in
Gsm3): Indonesia (3.0), Malaysia (2.4), China (2.3), Australia (0,9). Gas reserves of the
above mentioned countries sharply increased during the last ten years, their share in
the proved reserves of the region equals to 70% (67,5%). They are followed by India
(1.1) and Pakistan (0,9). Each of Brunei, Myanmar, Thailand has 0,3-0,4 Gsm3 of gas.
Countries of the region produce 13% of the world rec overy of natural gas (370
Bcm). The production has increased by 60% since 1995. Along with the stable growth
of gas production in China, Malaysia and Australia, such countries as Brunei, Indonesia,
Thailand have to limit it due to the absence of new gas sales markets, including LNG,
regional gas pipelines grid, stable own consumption.
4. Resources and reserves of the natural gas of Siberian Platform (37,9 and 2,6
Gsm3), Far East (14,6 and 1,4 Gsm3), Okhotsk Sea shelf (6,2 and 0,9 Gsm 3) and
Sakhalin Island sector (about 3 Gsm 3) can be the reliable base not only for gasification
of the industrial centers of the Siberian and Far-Eastern RF federal districts, but for the
large-scale export of natural gas to the countries of South-East Asia. In the Eastern
direction, Russia and Turkmenistan can provide natural gas supply to Pakistan, India
and China in cumulative volume of more than 100 Bcm.
At present the major importers of the energy resources in APR are Japan and
South Korea (except for USA); the major exporters are Indonesia, Malaysia, Australia
(except for Russia, Qatar and Canada).
International activities of OAO “Gazprom” related to operation of the mature and
emerging regional gas markets in Eurasia is aimed at solving the strategic tasks of
markets globalization and will favor the development and strengthening of the economic
stability and geopolitical security of the considered regions. These activities will present,
in the figurative language, the energy bridge between East and West.